21 January 2013
DROPOUT: A lower graduation rate is predicted for the U.S.
By Hannah Lerstad, Staff Writer
For the next few years until the end of the decade, the number of high school graduates is expected to drop according to a study by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. While this will benefit students applying for college, it leaves colleges in a difficult situation: with fewer graduates to choose from, there will be fewer graduates to recruit.
The report, Knocking at the College Door, found that the number of high school graduates peaked in the year 2010-2011 with 3.4 million and is expected to drop to its lowest number in the 2019-2020 school year. From there, it will pick back up again and grow until the year 2026-2027. In California, the projected low is approximately 384,600 high school graduates compared to the 430,292 graduates in 2010-2011.
Notably, the ethnicity percentages of high school graduates across the U.S. will change, with Hispanic graduates increasing 41 percent and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates increasing by 30 percent. However, the percentage of white and black graduates will drop by 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively. The study also predicts that by the low point, 45 percent of high school graduates will be non-white versus 38 percent in 2009. With an increase of minority graduates, colleges will be able to meet standards of ethnic diversity.
The student dropout rate is not predicted to be even throughout the U.S. The Midwest and Northeast are expected to be the hardest-hit areas of the nation, with a smaller decline in the West. On the other hand, the South is expected to grow slightly.
The dropout rates could have a positive effect on college applicants: overcrowding in colleges will be reduced, so more applicants will be able to get into the college of their choice.